Crunching the Numbers: How the Law of Averages Can Help You Make Smarter Decisions
The law of averages is a statistical principle that suggests that over time, the outcomes of a series of events will tend to even out, approaching the average or expected outcome. The law of averages is based on the idea that random events, such as coin tosses or dice rolls, will eventually produce results that reflect their underlying probabilities. For example, if you flip a fair coin 10 times, you might expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. However, in reality, you might get 4 heads and 6 tails or 6 heads and 4 tails. Over a larger number of flips, however, the results will tend to even out, and you will approach the expected outcome of 5 heads and 5 tails. The law of averages has many practical applications. In the world of gambling, for example, it suggests that over time, the house will tend to win approximately the same percentage of bets as its edge over the players. In investing, the law of averages suggests that over time, the returns on a diversified portfolio of stocks will tend to reflect the long-term average returns of the stock market as a whole. It is important to note, however, that the law of averages is a statistical principle and does not guarantee any particular outcome in any given situation. In fact, it is entirely possible for a series of random events to produce results that are significantly different from the expected outcome, especially in the short term.